By Minener Editor
In the age of decarbonization, digitization, and defense modernization, an unassuming group of 17 minerals is quietly dictating the future of global power: rare earth elements (REEs). These elements — with obscure names like neodymium, dysprosium, and yttrium — are the linchpins of advanced technology, clean energy, and military systems. But while the minerals themselves are scattered across the planet, control over their extraction and refinement is anything but democratic. And that control is now reshaping the geopolitical chessboard — from China and Chile to Ukraine.
The numbers are stark. China currently controls about 60% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 85–90% of the world’s processing capacity. This was no accident. It’s the result of a strategic, decades-long investment in not only extracting these critical materials, but in mastering the environmentally challenging and capital-intensive refining process that most Western countries offshored.
This near-monopoly has given Beijing enormous leverage. In recent years, Chinese officials have signaled a willingness to weaponize rare earth exports during disputes with countries like the U.S. and Japan. In a world increasingly defined by tech supremacy and green industrial policy, China’s grip on the supply chain is a strategic ace — and everyone else is scrambling to catch up.
Enter Chile.
Long known for its copper and lithium — both critical to the clean energy transition — Chile is now emerging as a potential player in rare earths. In 2023, geologists confirmed the presence of significant rare earth deposits in the country’s north. This could reposition Chile not just as a lithium giant, but as a future node in the rare earth supply chain, especially if it aligns its regulatory and environmental policies with Western strategic needs. However, Chile faces its own challenges: balancing indigenous rights, environmental sustainability, and national resource control amid rising global demand.
Ukraine’s role is more immediate — and more fraught.
Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine had begun to develop its rare earth mining potential, with EU support, as part of a broader push to reduce European dependence on Chinese and Russian raw materials. Ukraine holds significant reserves of several rare earths and other critical minerals. The war has both disrupted these plans and made their success even more important. If Ukraine survives and rebuilds, it could become a vital alternative source for the West — a mineral-rich democracy on the EU’s eastern flank. That alone adds a layer of long-term strategic urgency to Western support for Kyiv.
The global rare earth scramble is not just about economics; it’s about sovereignty.
For nations like Chile and Ukraine, rare earths represent an opportunity to gain geopolitical relevance. For the U.S., EU, and their allies, diversifying supply is an existential necessity. And for China, retaining dominance means defending a pillar of its global leverage — especially as tensions with the West over Taiwan, trade, and the South China Sea continue to escalate.
But this geopolitical race raises a thorny dilemma: how can countries rapidly scale up mining and processing without repeating the environmental and social damage seen in China’s own rare earth boom? Cleaner technologies exist, but they are more expensive. Democracies, with their slower permitting processes and public scrutiny, face an uphill climb. Yet, doing nothing risks strategic vulnerability.
Rare earths may not be rare in nature, but access to them is increasingly scarce — and politically sensitive. The new great game isn’t fought over oil fields, but over mineral rights in the Atacama, mining permits in Donbas, and processing plants in Inner Mongolia.
The 21st century’s geopolitical map will be drawn not just in capitals, but underground — in the veins of rare earths that power the world above.